But over the coming decade fossil fuel use needs to decline precipitously if the worst effects of climate change are to be avoided. A pandemic-related economic slowdown temporarily reduced the carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming. Governments have also failed to sufficiently address climate change. An extremely dangerous global failure to address existential threats-what we called “the new abnormal” in 2019-tightened its grip in the nuclear realm in the past year, increasing the likelihood of catastrophe. By our estimation, the potential for the world to stumble into nuclear war-an ever-present danger over the last 75 years-increased in 2020. Nuclear nations, however, have ignored or undermined practical and available diplomatic and security tools for managing nuclear risks. Events like the deadly assault earlier this month on the US Capitol renewed legitimate concerns about national leaders who have sole control of the use of nuclear weapons. Development of hypersonic glide vehicles, ballistic missile defenses, and weapons-delivery systems that can flexibly use conventional or nuclear warheads may raise the probability of miscalculation in times of tension. Still, the pandemic serves as a historic wake-up call, a vivid illustration that national governments and international organizations are unprepared to manage nuclear weapons and climate change, which currently pose existential threats to humanity, or the other dangers-including more virulent pandemics and next-generation warfare-that could threaten civilization in the near future.Īccelerating nuclear programs in multiple countries moved the world into less stable and manageable territory last year. But COVID-19 will not obliterate civilization, and we expect the disease to recede eventually.
Its consequences are grave and will be lasting.
Though lethal on a massive scale, this particular pandemic is not an existential threat. In this time of genuine crisis, governments too often abdicated responsibility, ignored scientific advice, did not cooperate or communicate effectively, and consequently failed to protect the health and welfare of their citizens.Īs a result, many hundreds of thousands of human beings died needlessly. The pandemic revealed just how unprepared and unwilling countries and the international system are to handle global emergencies properly. In 2020 alone, this novel disease killed 1.7 million people and sickened at least 70 million more. Humanity continues to suffer as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads around the world.
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